I didn't write this diatribe for this particular blog but I'm putting it here anyway. It's kind of long, but it's got pictures and swear words in it so it should hold your interest for 3 minutes, so read it.
I'm gonna be dishing out a lot of info specific to Portland, but all of this stuff applies to everybody in the Northwest. Seattle- this means you (especially West Seattle). In fact, it applies to everybody on the west coast since this regional disaster could trigger movement on the San Andreas Fault. Hey California, pay attention.
The west coast is due for a Cascadia Subduction Zone earthquake of massive proportions.
Before you skip the rest of this post and think, "yeah I already know all about our earthquake risks" let me tell you that you probably do NOT. This is new information. So shut up and read.
In case you missed the Willamette Week cover story this week entitled "Quake Up Call", click that link and check it out.
The Cascadia Subduction Zone is off the (mostly northwestern) US coast, and is where the oceanic crust scrapes under the continental crust. Every once and a while, it gets pretty gnarly. Hundreds of years of scraping causes strain on the continental crust (that's the ground you're standing on, smarty pants). This strain is eventually relieved in one incredibly powerful megathrust earthquake, which will really fuck up your life if you're anywhere near it.
We're near it.
Remember that 2004 tsunami in Indonesia that killed over 220,000 people? That was caused by a megathrust earthquake. And for the record, the subduction zone responsible for that shitshow was WAY farther offshore from them than the Cascadia zone is from us. How does a 30-100 foot wall of water wiping out entire western coastal communities sound? In case this sounds unlikely, The Pacific Northwest Seismic Network has some REALLY interesting reading, as does this guy who knows what he's talking about.
So why haven't you heard about this?
Well, up until pretty recently we didn't realize that the Cascadia Subduction Zone was causing megathrust earthquakes more than every 500 years or so. Since the last magnitude 9 event was in 1700, nobody was particularly freaking out about it. But recent evidence shows that these megathrust earthquakes happen more like every 300-350 years. We're at 310 years right now. Chris Goldfinger, associate professor of marine geology at OSU, says that earthquakes occurring in this area “Don’t often go past 300 years, so one is about due.”
The recent earthquake in Haiti lasted less than one minute. Revel in the horror of destruction there if you haven't already. 200,000 people are dead. "Disaster" doesn't even describe it. Now consider that when (not if) this megathrust earthquake hits Portland (and Seattle, and Vancouver, etc) the ground will not shake for mere seconds- it will shake for several minutes. This event will be the largest earthquake disaster in North American history. The ensuing tsunami will travel globally:
But wait, there's more!
A megathrust earthquake isn't going to be our only problem. In addition to ground motion amplification, we also have to worry about liquefaction (North Portland and the airport, I'm lookin' at you), as well as massive landslides (West side, holler). While we're at it, let's not rule out seiche.
The neat thing about earthquakes is they trigger so many other disasters. Even non-geological, secondary disasters such as uncontrolled fires. For even more information on the multitude of risks, check out some USGS hazard maps for our area. It pretty clearly outlines where the most dangerous parts of the city are. Suffice to say I'm glad to be on the east side.
For lots more critical info about this very real impending disaster, including details about how the subduction zone works and what you should do when it goes bad, check out the Cascadia Subduction Zone Earthquake Scenario Project
All that scary stuff aside, the point of this note is to tell you one thing:
BE PREPARED.
The chances of this happening in the next 50 years are around 20%. Which doesn't sound all that scary. Until the ground you're standing on crumbles and you've got no plan, no escape route, and no supplies. I just watched a CBC documentary about the CSZ megathrust earthquake situation, called "Shock Wave". One scientist said: "We can't tell you exactly when it's going to happen, but I can tell you we are one day closer to it than we were yesterday."
Sounds a little unprofound and obvious, but that's the point. It didn't happen yesterday, so it could happen tomorrow.
Infrastructure will collapse.
There will be no fire department to save your house.
There will be no ambulances to take you to the hospital.
There will be no immediate cavalry to escort you to safety.
There will be no store to go buy supplies at.
You will be on your own.
So tomorrow, this weekend, your first available time, get your shit together. Stop putting it off.
You have financial insurance in case you get into a car wreck. Do you have any planning insurance to keep yourself and your family alive during a disaster? If the ground started shaking right now, if you're on the coast and a tsunami is on its way in 15 minutes to annihilate your whole community, if the bridges across the Willamette river snapped, what would you do? If you had seconds to get out of your house, if you had minutes to evacuate an area, how would you do it? Most of Portland (hell, most of everywhere) is not earthquake-proof, so in case you had that idea, go ahead and forget it.
Be prepared.
You have time to do this.
You have money to do this.
There is no price in dollars or hours for the life of yourself, your kids, your spouse or anybody else you care about.
Don't let anybody tell you you're over-reacting by making a plan and an emergency supply kit.
You're living in a hazard zone. I think you're great, but you're an idiot to pretend this isn't going to happen eventually.
So here's some suggestions:
1) Make a plan. If you're home, what do you do? Howabout at school? Work? Where do you go? If you're in Portland, the west side is going to be a nightmare. Plan accordingly. Establish a safe and reasonable meeting place with your family in case you're separated. Choose a single out-of-town contact for your family to report to.
2) Make a 7-day survival kit for your home. A single Rubbermaid storage tub could save your life.
3) Make a "go-bag" you can run out of your house with on 30 seconds notice.
4) Have a kit in your car, if possible.
You can do this on the cheap. Ebay is a fantastic resource for survival gear. You can get a pound of calcium hypochlorite which can sanitize 10,000 gallons of contaminated water for less than $15. You can get MREs for a few bucks each. Flashlights? Radio? Space blankets? It's all there. And it's all worth it.
Here are some great resources for what to pack:
http://72hours.org/go_bag.html
http://www.gobag.org/
Please check these out. There's shit on these lists that you'll probably never think of on your own. Like copies of your identification. Spare keys. Medication. Calling card. Some cash, if you can. (Sorry, ATMs will be down after the city collapses.) In my go-bag I've also got a short, easily-accessible list of other important things to grab from my house at the last minute if I have time (like my laptop).
Survival kits are good for more than just an earthquake. They're good for anything. Including storms that knock out your power or water supply for extended periods, house fires, and other assorted emergencies. Remember when the city of Portland shut down during Snowpocalypse 2008 and 1,000 people abandoned their vehicles on the highway? Shit happens. Really. To every-day people, even when they've got warning.
I'm not asking you to build a bomb shelter. Just make a backpack and a Rubbermaid storage tub, and have a conversation with your family.
Don't rely on somebody else to take care of this for you. Do it yourself. Now.
The USGS is the authority on all this geological stuff. So go check that out as well.
One more thing:
Forward this post to your friends. Get the word out a little more. More educated people means less idiots asking me (and you) to share critical supplies when the shit goes down.
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